Core Insights - The quantum computing sector has shown weak performance in February 2026, with the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) rising only 1.2% amid volatility and sector-wide weakness as investors shift away from high-risk tech assets [1] - Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty have led investors to sell quantum stocks to secure gains, exerting downward pressure on prices [1] Macroeconomic Backdrop - Major economies are maintaining a pause in monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve keeping the federal funds rate steady at approximately 3.50–3.75% [2] - Elevated interest rates are being used to control inflation while labor market stabilization is monitored, with job gains and unemployment near pre-pandemic levels [2][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and trade frictions in North America, are increasing market uncertainty and potentially delaying capital expenditures in deep tech sectors [3] Market and Industry Fundamentals - The global quantum computing market is projected to reach about $2 billion in 2026, driven by sectors such as defense and aerospace, although current revenues remain low [5] - Leading companies in the quantum computing space, including IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI), are showing significant upside potential in their short-term price targets [5] - IONQ's average price target suggests a 125.85% upside from its last closing price of $33.43, while QBTS and RGTI show potential upsides of 108.26% from $19.38 and 142.77% from $16.60, respectively [6][8][12] March 2026 Outlook - The optimistic projections for March are based on expectations of achieving key technological milestones and expanding enterprise partnerships [14] - However, stock price volatility remains significant, with investors cautious due to the early revenue stages of these firms and uncertain profitability timelines [15] - March is expected to see selective stabilization rather than a broad sector recovery, with stocks linked to defense contracts and near-term revenues likely to outperform [16]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is set to release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 4, 2026, which is anticipated to be a crucial update for investors assessing the company's recent commercial achievements and technical progress [1][9] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, RGTI's revenue fell by 18% year-over-year to $1.9 million, with a significant reduction in gross margin to 21% due to contract mix and pricing variability [1][2] - The company has secured $5.7 million in Novera system purchase orders and a $5.8 million AFRL contract, which are expected to positively impact fourth-quarter revenue [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2026 earnings suggests a substantial 74.3% improvement compared to the previous year [12] Strategic Developments - Rigetti has revised the timeline for the general availability of its 108-qubit quantum computing system, Cepheus-1-108Q, now aiming for availability by the end of Q1 2026 [3] - Investors should monitor updates regarding DARPA Phase B engagement and developments related to NVIDIA's NVQLink hybrid computing ecosystem [4] Market Position and Valuation - Rigetti's shares have increased by 7.4% over the last six months, contrasting with an 18.2% decline in the industry [8] - The company currently has a price-to-book ratio of 14.13, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11]

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks, particularly IonQ and D-Wave, experienced significant declines last week, while Rigetti showed relative resilience despite also falling slightly. The overall sentiment in the quantum computing sector remains bearish as investors shift focus to more stable industries [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - IonQ (IONQ) fell 6.48% last week, closing at $31.90, marking a one-month loss of 34% and a year-to-date decline of nearly 29% [1]. - D-Wave (QBTS) dropped 8.19% to $18.06, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 31% [1]. - Rigetti (RGTI) was the best performer among quantum stocks, declining only 1.06% to $15.92, but still down 28% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Insider Activity and Market Sentiment - Insiders across IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave net-sold approximately $615 million in shares over the past year, indicating a lack of confidence among those with the most information [1]. - IonQ's insider transactions showed a net direction of selling, with 10 recent transactions reported [1]. - The composite sentiment score for IonQ is 37.99 (Bearish), while Rigetti's score is 34.58 (Bearish), contrasting with D-Wave's score of 67.91 (Bullish) [1]. Group 3: Earnings Expectations - IonQ is set to report Q4 2025 results on February 25, 2026, with analyst consensus expecting a loss of $0.47 EPS and revenue of $40.38 million [1]. - Prediction markets indicate a 76% probability of IonQ beating earnings expectations, raising questions about whether this potential beat is already priced into the stock [1]. - Rigetti will report its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results on March 4, 2026, with analysts projecting a GAAP EPS of -$0.05 and revenue of $2.33 million [1].

Core Insights - Wall Street is significantly investing in Rigetti Computing, with major asset managers like Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street holding substantial shares, indicating a strong interest in the company [1][2] - Vanguard's investment in Rigetti, valued at approximately $577 million, is primarily due to the stock's inclusion in broad market indexes rather than a reflection of the fund managers' strong belief in the company's potential [2][6] - The surge in Rigetti's stock price by over 1,700% in 2025 led to an increase in its weighting in various indexes, which in turn inflated the value of institutional holdings [3] Institutional Investment Dynamics - Active hedge funds, such as D.E. Shaw, also hold positions in Rigetti, but these are driven by algorithmic trading strategies rather than long-term convictions about the company's future [4] - Many funds that typically invest for the medium to long term have minimal exposure to Rigetti, with positions constituting less than 0.01% of their portfolios, suggesting a lack of confidence in the stock [5] Misinterpretation of Institutional Ownership - The presence of large institutional investors like Vanguard on Rigetti's shareholder list is often misinterpreted as a validation of the company's prospects, but it is largely a mechanical outcome of index inclusion rather than an endorsement from "smart money" [6]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is a key player in the quantum computing sector, offering various quantum computers including the flagship Ankaa-3 and the modular Cepheus-1-108Q, which is expected to be commercially released by the end of Q1 2026 [1][6] - The global quantum computing market was valued at $1.44 billion in the previous year and is projected to grow to $19.44 billion by 2035, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30% [4] - Rigetti has received an order worth $8.4 million from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit quantum computer, scheduled for installation in Bengaluru [7] Company Overview - Rigetti has been operational since 2013, focusing on the design, construction, and marketing of superconducting quantum integrated circuits and processor chips [2] - The company emphasizes flexibility in its offerings to attract customers, with systems designed for both standalone and expanded configurations [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Rigetti reported revenues of $1.9 million, a decline of 19% year-over-year, and an operating loss of $20.5 million, with a non-GAAP net loss of $10.7 million [9] - The stock has faced downward pressure due to high competition from major players like IBM and Honeywell, as well as operational challenges [8] Analyst Insights - TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar has a Hold rating on Rigetti, citing balanced risk/reward dynamics but highlighting concerns over cash burn and competitive pressures [10][11] - The consensus rating for Rigetti is Moderate Buy, with an average price target suggesting a potential upside of 133% from the current stock price of $16.6 [11]

Key Takeaways Rigetti is scaling toward 1,000 qubits by 2027 using modular chiplet architecture.RGTI's 36-qubit chiplets show nearly 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity, targeting ~150 qubits in 2026.Rigetti shares gained 12.5% in six months, while 2026 earnings estimates signal 74.3% growth.Rigetti Computing’s (RGTI) push toward a 1,000-plus qubit machine by 2027 is now grounded in its chiplet-driven design strategy, not just incremental R&D progress. During its third-quarter earnings discussion, management emph ...

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) are two stocks that rewarded investors with incredible returns, but even after their recent retreat from their October highs, I think they have a lot further to fall. Even now, with Rigetti shares trading at $16 and D-Wave at $20, their valuations are disconnected from reality and any business fundamentals, and that could soon be a serious problem for investors. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they belie ...

BERKELEY, Calif., Feb. 18, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rigetti Computing, Inc. ("Rigetti" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: RGTI), a pioneer in hybrid quantum-classical computing, announced today that it will release fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 4, 2026, after market close. The Company will host a conference call to discuss its financial results and provide an update on its business operations at 5:00 pm ET the same day. Key details regarding the call are as follows: Call Date: Wednesday, March ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing stocks, particularly IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave, have seen extraordinary returns, with trailing 12-month gains ranging from 670% to 6,217% [2] - The technology is expected to create significant economic value, with estimates ranging from $450 billion to $850 billion by 2040, and a $1 trillion addressable opportunity by 2035 [7] Company Performance - Insiders at IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave have sold approximately $615 million more in shares than they have purchased over the past year, indicating potential concerns about stock valuation [14][20] - IonQ's market cap stands at $12 billion, while Rigetti's is at $5.1 billion, reflecting their positions in the market [13][16] Market Trends - The rise of quantum computing has been fueled by significant investments, including JPMorgan Chase's $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative, which identifies quantum computing as a key area for future financing [8] - Major companies like Amazon are already utilizing quantum computing through services like Braket, which enhances the credibility and market presence of IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave [9] Insider Activity - No insiders at Rigetti have purchased shares in the past year, while D-Wave had minimal insider buying, suggesting a lack of confidence in stock valuation [17] - In contrast, two directors at IonQ have invested approximately $2.1 million in their own company, indicating some level of confidence [17] Industry Outlook - Quantum computing is still in its early commercialization stages, and historical trends suggest that new technologies often face significant challenges and corrections during their growth phases [19] - Analysts caution that the high price-to-sales ratios of quantum computing stocks may not reflect their long-term potential, as the technology is still being optimized for practical applications [18]

Core Insights - Investors have shown significant interest in quantum computing stocks, but many are experiencing sharp declines in 2025 [1] - Quantum computing has the potential to outperform classical computing in processing workloads, particularly in fields like science and cryptography [2] - Ark Investment Management suggests that the commercialization of quantum computing may be further away than anticipated by investors [3] Company Overview: Rigetti Computing - Rigetti Computing is a leader in the quantum industry, owning its fabrication facility and developing its own programming language, Quil [5] - The company has created a cloud computing platform to rent quantum computing capacity, allowing for faster updates to its systems [5] - Rigetti has built the largest multichip quantum computer, Cepheus-1-36Q, achieving a fidelity of 99.5% [6] Technical Aspects of Quantum Computing - Quantum computers utilize qubits, which can represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously, enabling rapid simulations from large datasets [7] - A fidelity of 99.5% means an error occurs once every 200 operations, which is still too high for many applications [8] - Rigetti plans to launch a new 150-qubit quantum computer with 99.7% fidelity by the end of 2026, followed by a 1,000-qubit system with 99.8% fidelity in 2027 [9] Market Position and Financials - Rigetti generated $5.2 million in revenue during the first three quarters of 2025, which is minimal for a company valued at $5 billion [8] - The current market cap of Rigetti is approximately $5.3 billion, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 617, making it one of the most expensive tech stocks [10][16] - Despite a 71% decline from its peak, Rigetti has a three-year return of 1,550% [15] Competitive Landscape - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, is also developing quantum systems and has significantly more resources than Rigetti [10] - According to Ark's research, Alphabet's quantum computers are expected to double qubits and reduce error rates by 40% every four years, delaying the ability to crack the RSA-2048 encryption until 2063 [11] - Ark believes quantum computers could be useful for cryptographic decryption by 2044 if advancements in qubit doubling and error rate reduction are accelerated [13] Valuation Concerns - Rigetti's high valuation is considered unsustainable given its current revenue levels and the long timeline for achieving commercially viable quantum computing [15][18] - The industry faces significant challenges in scaling quantum systems, which may hinder Rigetti's ability to maintain its growth trajectory [14]