债市 上下空间均受限

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield declining from a high of nearly 1.74% on July 24 to around 1.69% [1] - The economic fundamentals show a "strong total + weak structure" characteristic, limiting the upward and downward space for government bond yields [1][6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a balanced and moderately loose monetary policy, with a potential 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio cut and 10-20 BP interest rate reduction by the end of Q3 or early Q4 [1] Group 2 - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing new ones, indicating a cautious approach towards "anti-involution" measures [2] - The focus on "anti-involution" reflects a shift in policy emphasis from actual growth to nominal growth, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth in the second half of the year [2][6] - The July inflation data showed no signs of reversal in the economic fundamentals, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly exceeding market expectations while the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 3.6% [3][5] Group 3 - The bond market remains under pressure from strong policy expectations, with the focus shifting from total quantity to structural transformation and upgrading [1][2] - The current economic environment is characterized by "total resilience + structural differentiation," with prices in a bottoming phase and commodity prices supported by "anti-involution" policies [6] - The recovery of prices and the potential for PPI to turn positive depend significantly on demand-side performance, indicating that the bond market's direction is closely tied to demand and monetary policy changes [5][6]