黑色产业链企业在市场高波动下的应对之策

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity prices have experienced significant fluctuations, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" policy, which is reshaping the black industry chain and revealing deeper supply-demand contradictions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The black commodity prices peaked in the second half of 2021 and have since declined for four years, primarily due to weakened demand [2]. - From 2021 to 2024, the average annual decline in apparent consumption of crude steel is estimated at 3.99%, while crude steel production is expected to decline by only 1.4% annually [2]. - The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of steel used in construction decreasing from 63.5% in 2021 to 57% in 2024, while manufacturing steel usage has increased from 36.5% to 43% [2]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - Steel mills are adjusting production strategies by reducing construction steel output and increasing manufacturing steel output, while also focusing on high-end steel products [4]. - Long-process steel mills have maintained higher profit margins compared to short-process mills, which have been more reactive to profit changes [3][7]. - The average profit for long-process steel mills has increased from 74 yuan/ton in 2015-2016 to 93 yuan/ton in 2023-2024 [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address structural contradictions during economic transformation and promote high-quality economic development [4]. - The policy shift from merely reducing production capacity to promoting technological upgrades and green transformation is seen as a response to insufficient domestic demand and increasing trade protectionism [4][5]. - The market has reacted positively to the "anti-involution" policy, with significant price increases in the black sector following the announcement of the policy [5]. Group 4: Volatility and Risk Management - The black sector has experienced increased volatility, with coking coal prices rebounding by 44.5% and steel prices rising over 10% in early July [6]. - Price fluctuations have impacted production decisions and risk management across the industry, leading to differentiated strategies among steel mills [7]. - Companies are adopting financial tools to stabilize profits, such as dynamic capacity adjustment mechanisms and hedging strategies [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is facing challenges with a PMI new orders index of 49.4%, indicating difficulties in passing price increases downstream [8]. - Companies are exploring survival strategies in response to high price volatility, including dynamic production adjustments and financial derivatives to manage risks [9][10]. - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy will require careful monitoring of its impact on various sectors, particularly in raw materials and finished products [11].