甲醇 偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is experiencing an oversupply situation, leading to a significant increase in port inventories and a high probability of price declines in the future [1][6]. Group 1: Inventory and Production - Port inventories of methanol have risen sharply, with domestic port inventory reaching 803,300 tons as of August 7, an increase of 454,700 tons since the end of April, representing a 130.44% rise [4]. - Domestic methanol production has seen a decrease in operational load, with the operational load at 81.61% as of August 7, down 9.7 percentage points from the end of June and 0.93 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite low production loads, methanol production enterprises have low inventories, totaling 293,700 tons as of August 7, a decrease of 30,800 tons week-on-week, reflecting a 9.50% decline [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - Methanol prices have shown a weak trend, with the main futures contract closing at 2,389 yuan/ton on August 11, down 5.4% from the high of 2,525 yuan/ton on July 25 [1]. - The overall market conditions indicate that methanol prices are likely to face downward pressure due to rising port inventories and weak downstream demand [6]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - Traditional downstream sectors for methanol, including formaldehyde and dimethyl ether, are facing significant losses, with losses per ton reported at 105 yuan for formaldehyde and 365 yuan for acetic acid as of August 7 [5]. - The operational load for coal-to-olefins, which constitutes a significant portion of methanol demand, is at 76.7%, showing a slight year-on-year increase, but recent profit recovery is insufficient to stimulate the resumption of previously halted production [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The methanol market is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, with continuous pressure on prices due to rising port inventories and weak downstream demand [6]. - Methanol enterprises may consider reducing prices to downstream sectors to address the current imbalances in profit distribution within the industry [6].