Group 1: Production and Market Sentiment - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting by the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year due to rising steel prices, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.2118 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with rebar apparent consumption at 2.1079 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week-on-week [2] - The total inventory of rebar was 5.5668 million tons, up 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - Concerns regarding tariffs affecting steel exports have not materialized, with steel exports in July 2025 reaching 9.836 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following safety inspections, and a decrease in the utilization rate of coking coal mines to 83.9%, down 2.4 percentage points week-on-week [3] - Coking coal supply remains constrained, limiting the potential for significant price declines, thus providing cost support for steel prices [3] - Although there may be resistance to rising rebar prices during the off-season, low inventory levels and the upcoming peak season in September and October suggest a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential for early replenishment of demand [3]
旺季渐近 螺纹钢稳中偏强
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-11 23:24