PTA 强势震荡

Core Viewpoint - The short-term PTA price is supported around 4700 yuan/ton due to stable costs, equipment maintenance, and improved expectations for terminal demand [1] Cost Support Insufficiency - Oil prices are expected to remain weak due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and a potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with OPEC+ maintaining a production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September [2] - PX supply is increasing as domestic PX operating rates rose to 82% as of August 8, with a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The processing fee for MX and PX has recovered to a high of 122 USD/ton, but PX prices are expected to fluctuate downwards due to insufficient fundamental support [2] Increased Equipment Maintenance - PTA inventory saw a slight decrease to approximately 3.7315 million tons, down by 49,900 tons week-on-week, despite a shift from inventory reduction to accumulation since July [3] - PTA operating load decreased to 74.7%, down by 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, with processing fees at a low average of 160 yuan/ton [3] - Polyester production has increased, with polyester operating rates rising to around 88.8%, alleviating some PTA inventory pressure [3] Downstream Demand Expectations - The terminal operating load showed local adjustments during the off-season, with polyester sales significantly increasing under low raw material prices [5] - The comprehensive operating rate for weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 2 percentage points to 59%, while dyeing rates increased by 5 percentage points to 65% [5] - Current polyester profits are low, and inventory levels are high, indicating that downstream demand has not yet fully materialized [5] Market Outlook - The market anticipates continued supply increases in oil, with seasonal demand expected to weaken, leading to supply pressure [7] - The expectation of PX accumulation may impact PTA prices, despite potential inventory reductions driven by maintenance and seasonal demand [7] - Short-term PTA prices may experience fluctuations but face limited upward potential due to insufficient cost support and uncertain downstream demand recovery [7]