焦炭 溢价偏高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coking coal prices are rising due to increased raw material costs, but the rise in coking coal prices is not fully transmitted to coke prices due to weak demand in the steel sector [1] - Coking coal prices have recently slowed down, with signs of weak supply and demand in both upstream and downstream industries, leading to a slight decline in coke prices [1] - There are two strong expectations supporting coke prices despite the current downward pressures from reduced downstream demand and weakened upstream cost support [1] Group 2 - Steel demand is expected to remain stable as the peak season approaches, with a slight decrease in iron output not significantly impacting demand for coke [2] - Short-term expectations for tight coking coal supply persist, driven by strong demand for thermal coal and potential production restrictions in coal mines [2] - The overall pricing outlook for the black series commodities is optimistic, with coking coal pricing reflecting overly optimistic expectations for crude steel demand [2] Group 3 - The average daily demand for crude steel in China during the first half of the year was 2.84 million tons, with a slight decrease expected in the second half due to reduced support from special government bonds [3] - The baseline assumption for coking coal production is an increase of 13 million tons by 2025, while imports are expected to decrease by 10 million tons [3] - The supply-demand balance indicates an annual surplus of 13.38 million tons of coking coal, with estimated warehouse values for coking coal and coke at 890 RMB/ton and 1454 RMB/ton, respectively [3] Group 4 - As of August 11, coking coal and coke contracts are trading at significant premiums compared to optimistic valuations, indicating strong market support for these commodities [4] - The high premiums for coking coal and coke are primarily supported by expectations of tightening supply [4] - If coking coal production does not meet optimistic expectations, the premium space for coking coal and coke may face contraction risks [4]