A股市场情绪维持高位 警惕盈利端预期兑现对交易节奏的影响

Market Sentiment - The A-share market sentiment index has shown a slight decline but remains in an optimistic range, with trading congestion levels showing divergence and overall levels being relatively high [1][10] - The market sentiment reached its highest level of the year due to factors such as easing Middle Eastern geopolitical risks and expectations surrounding "anti-involution" policies, approaching the peak seen in July 2020 [1][11] - However, as policy expectations cool and overseas equity markets experience significant adjustments, the A-share market sentiment is trending downward, with the 5-day moving average of the sentiment index falling below the 20-day moving average [1][11] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for A-shares remain weak, with the consensus net profit growth forecast for the CSI 300 index at 0.7%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2024 [3][4] - Despite a low base for earnings last year, the profit growth forecast for small-cap indices in 2025 is still low [3] - Economic stimulus is likely to increase in the second half of the year, which may help offset the impact of weak external demand and trade frictions, but the overall offsetting effect is expected to be moderate [3] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with stock ETFs experiencing a net outflow of approximately 4.9 billion yuan, although the outflow scale is gradually shrinking [7][10] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of around 4.7 billion yuan, marking a shift from previous net outflows [7][10] - Retail investors continue to show strong buying interest, with a net inflow of approximately 35.1 billion yuan, marking 12 consecutive weeks of net inflows [7][10] Trading Congestion - Trading congestion levels in the A-share market are showing significant divergence, with some indices experiencing rising congestion while others see a decline [10] - The trading congestion for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 has notably increased, while indices such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have seen a decrease [10] - Overall, while trading sentiment has surpassed the high point of October 2024, there is still a notable gap in trading congestion levels, indicating that bullish trading has not yet reached a significantly overheated state [10]