91%基金经理高呼美股太贵！美银调查：近七成押注软着陆，但现金仓位暗示回调在即

Core Insights - The latest monthly survey by Bank of America indicates that 91% of fund managers believe the U.S. stock market is overvalued, the highest level since 2001 [1] - Investor sentiment is at its highest since February, with cash allocation dropping to a historical low of 3.9%, often seen as a signal for potential market pullbacks [1] - Approximately 68% of fund managers expect a "soft landing" for the global economy in the next 12 months, while only 5% predict a "hard landing" [1] Group 1: Market Valuation and Sentiment - The survey covered 169 fund managers managing a total of $413 billion in assets [1] - Interest in emerging market stocks has increased, with 49% of respondents considering them undervalued, the highest since February 2024 [1] - The proportion of fund managers increasing global stock holdings has risen to 14%, the highest since February, but still significantly lower than the peak of 49% in December [1] Group 2: Trading and Risks - The "long the seven giants" trade (including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Apple) is viewed as the most crowded trade by 45% of respondents, marking a return to the top since March [1] - Major tail risks identified by fund managers include a trade war leading to global recession (29%), persistent inflation hindering Fed rate cuts (27%), and a potential AI stock bubble (14%) [2] - The recent surge in U.S. stocks is attributed to better-than-expected corporate earnings and optimistic expectations regarding Fed rate cuts amid economic slowdown [2]