流动性紧缩冲击来袭？分析师预警：美债发行“抽走”资金，9月恐成市场压力临界点

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term government bonds to replenish cash reserves since the debt ceiling was raised, leading to concerns about potential liquidity constraints in the financing market [1] - Bank reserves remain ample at around $3.33 trillion, providing necessary buffers for the financing market, but this situation may change in late September as the Treasury's total account is expected to increase from about $490 billion to $860 billion [1] - The decrease in available reserves is projected to bring the bank reserve balance below $3 trillion for the first time since the pandemic, which may require increased attention to daily changes in overnight market conditions [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is reportedly a candidate for the next Fed Chair, suggesting that the Fed could reduce bank reserves to about $2.7 trillion, which is significant for assessing the impact on overnight funding markets [2] - The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has been declining, indicating a reduction in excess liquidity, with estimates suggesting that RRP usage could drop to zero by the end of August [2] - The increase in Treasury cash balances is expected to lead to a decrease in bank reserves, raising the likelihood of funding stress in the market [2]