SCS(SH:601555) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-11 23:59Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for the US stock market indicates it will undergo multiple "stress tests," primarily characterized by volatility due to global demand slowdown and interest rate cut expectations [1] Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is currently caught between slowing global demand and hopes for interest rate cuts, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic data; any slowdown in data will amplify stock market fluctuations [1] - Historical calendar effects show that August and September have been the worst-performing months for the S&P 500 over the past thirty years [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting in August may lead to the market pricing in potentially hawkish policy expectations, as historically, 5 out of 6 speeches by Powell at Jackson Hole resulted in S&P 500 adjustments [1] Group 2: Long-term Market Outlook - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate a slowdown but not a recession, with stable wage income supporting consumption and nominal growth [1] - The wealth effect in the US is expected to provide a safeguard for economic growth [1] - The ongoing surge in Token and the acceleration of AI implementation suggest a confirmed long-term trend, with performance realization becoming a key focus for the market [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and tax reductions are anticipated to provide support for the economy, acting as a counterbalance to downturns [1]