Core Viewpoint - The surge in stock price of Hotgen Biotech, which increased over 900% since September 2024, is disconnected from its declining performance, as the company reported its first loss since going public in 2024 [1][2][15]. Company Performance - Hotgen Biotech's main business is in in vitro diagnostic (IVD) reagents and instruments, accounting for 99% of its revenue. The company has faced significant challenges due to centralized procurement policies, leading to an over 80% decline in the sector [2][15]. - The company's revenue plummeted by 90% in 2024 compared to its historical peak, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue further decreased by nearly 20% year-on-year [15][19]. - The gross margin has been declining for nine consecutive years, dropping from over 73% before 2019 to significantly lower levels due to changes in business structure and demand fluctuations [17][21]. Market Dynamics - The A-share innovation drug index hit a ten-year low in September 2024, down over 50% from its peak in 2020, but rebounded nearly 90% thereafter, driven by both market recovery and advancements in domestic innovative drug development [5][6]. - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies have significantly improved their R&D capabilities, contributing to one-third of global innovative drug development, with external licensing transactions exceeding 50 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [5][6]. Investment Speculation - Hotgen Biotech's stock surge is largely attributed to speculative investments in its innovative drug business, which has yet to generate any revenue. The company has invested in several innovative drug firms, including ShunJing Pharmaceutical, which is developing a novel antibody drug for acute myocardial infarction [7][12]. - The global market for acute myocardial infarction treatment is substantial, with a demand exceeding 50 billion USD, but the success of the drug pipeline remains uncertain due to the lengthy and risky nature of drug development [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment market is also highly competitive, with numerous domestic and international companies developing drugs. Hotgen Biotech's stake in ZhiYuan Biotech, which is working on an AD treatment, faces significant competition from established players [9][10][11]. - Hotgen Biotech holds only a 23% stake in ZhiYuan Biotech, limiting its potential financial benefits from any successful drug development [11][12]. Industry Challenges - The IVD sector is experiencing severe price pressures due to centralized procurement policies, with significant revenue declines reported across the industry. Over 70% of IVD companies saw revenue shrink year-on-year, and many are facing substantial losses [18][19][20]. - The future growth prospects for Hotgen Biotech's core IVD business appear bleak, raising concerns about its ability to support its investments in innovative drug companies [21][22].
飙涨900%，A股又一“神药”杀疯了？
3 6 Ke·2025-08-12 00:04