张舒：菲律宾拉拢印度，抱团取暖还是搅局亚太？

Core Points - The visit of Philippine President Marcos to India is historic as it marks the first visit by a Philippine leader to India in 18 years, highlighting the potential for cooperation between the two nations [1][3] - Despite the optimistic outlook from the Philippines, the outcomes of the visit are seen as more symbolic than substantive, with the establishment of a "strategic partnership" rather than a "comprehensive strategic partnership" [3][4] - The bilateral agreements signed during the visit cover various areas including trade, defense, and technology, but the depth of cooperation remains limited compared to other regional partnerships [5][6] Economic Cooperation - Bilateral trade between the Philippines and India has been steadily increasing, with a 63% rise since 2019, reaching $3.3 billion by 2024, but this is still significantly lower than trade volumes with China and the U.S. [12][13] - The negotiation of a preferential trade agreement (PTA) is expected to take considerable time, indicating that immediate economic benefits may not materialize [5][12] Defense Cooperation - The defense cooperation framework established includes mechanisms for military dialogue and collaboration, but lacks the depth seen in agreements with other countries like Japan [5][6] - The Philippines has previously signed a $375 million contract for BrahMos missile systems from India, with deliveries scheduled for 2024 and 2025, but no new contracts were announced during this visit [5][7] Geopolitical Context - The cooperation between the Philippines and India is influenced by the broader U.S.-China rivalry, with both nations seeking to counter China's influence in the region [8][10] - India's support for the Philippines in the South China Sea arbitration case reflects a shift in its previously ambiguous stance towards China, indicating a potential alignment against Chinese territorial claims [7][10] - The partnership is seen as a strategic move for both countries, with the Philippines leveraging its relationship with India to bolster its position against China, while India aims to enhance its regional influence [14][15]