福能期货：旺季渐近，螺纹钢稳中偏强

Group 1: Production Expectations - The expectation of production restrictions in steel mills remains, with a recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the governance of disorderly competition rather than merely reducing capacity, leading to a cooling sentiment regarding "anti-involution" in the market [1] - Steel profits have reached a new high for the year as steel prices rise, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises at 68.4%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points week-on-week, marking eight consecutive weeks of growth [1] - Rebar production was reported at 2.21 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons week-on-week, indicating strong production willingness among steel mills [1] Group 2: Demand Resilience - Despite seasonal impacts leading to a slight decline in terminal demand, overall demand remains resilient, with a week-on-week increase in rebar apparent consumption of 73,800 tons, totaling 2.11 million tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar reached 5.57 million tons, an increase of 103,900 tons week-on-week, but still at a low level compared to previous years [2] - The market has not yet seen a decline in steel exports due to tariff concerns, with July exports at 9.84 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous month [2] Group 3: Cost Support - The impact of "anti-involution" on coking coal is becoming evident, with slow recovery in coal mine production following the end of the safety production month in June [3] - The utilization rate of coking coal mines was reported at 83.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points week-on-week, indicating limited supply and ongoing checks on overproduction [3] - Despite the demand season being weak, the low inventory levels of rebar and tight coking coal supply provide cost support for steel prices, with expectations of a stable to slightly strong price trend as the market approaches the peak season [3]