两大“抽水机”将同时开启！2019年式的市场风暴恐正酝酿

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury is increasing the supply of short-term government securities to rebuild its cash reserves, raising concerns about potential liquidity tightening in the financing market [1] - Approximately $328 billion of short-term government securities have been issued since the debt ceiling was raised, which is drawing funds from the financial system [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to increase from about $490 billion to $860 billion by mid-September, potentially causing bank reserves to drop below $3 trillion for the first time since the pandemic [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed could reduce bank reserves to around $2.7 trillion without disrupting the overnight financing market [4] - The usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) tool, a key measure of excess liquidity, has been declining, making bank reserves increasingly critical for financing market functionality [4] - Following a spike at the end of July, the balance of the RRP tool has been on a downward trend, with estimates suggesting it could approach zero by the end of August [4] Group 3 - As the RRP tool nears depletion, the increase in Treasury cash balances will directly consume bank reserves, raising the likelihood of a liquidity crunch similar to the one experienced in 2019 [5]