Core Viewpoint - The rubber sector is experiencing a strong oscillation pattern, driven by macroeconomic improvements and supply-demand dynamics in the domestic market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 saw a slight rebound, increasing by 1.88% to close at 15,440 yuan/ton, followed by a further rise of 1.39% to 15,715 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic rubber market has shifted to a phase of fundamental supply-demand competition as geopolitical risk premiums have subsided [2]. - The macroeconomic environment has improved significantly, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve developments, including the nomination of Stephen Moore, which is perceived as a signal for potential interest rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Supply Factors - Continuous rainfall in major domestic and international rubber-producing regions has led to lower raw material output, supporting high raw material prices [3]. - The average price of domestic natural rubber increased month-on-month in July, with Yunnan and Hainan regions seeing rises of nearly 600 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton, respectively [3]. - Labor shortages in Thailand are impacting rubber tapping progress, with plans to introduce foreign labor to alleviate the situation [3]. Group 3: Demand Factors - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and the postponement of tariffs have improved export demand, while domestic automotive production and sales have stabilized [4]. - Heavy truck sales from January to July 2025 reached 603,000 units, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year increase, which boosts demand confidence [4]. - The market sentiment regarding demand has improved, with downstream companies actively purchasing raw materials due to low inventory levels [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rubber sector's negative sentiment has been released after significant prior declines, with expectations for Shanghai rubber futures to perform strongly [4]. - Short-term predictions indicate that rubber raw material prices will remain firm, with stable demand and inventory levels [4]. - The ongoing rainy weather and rising raw material prices in Thailand are expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern for Shanghai rubber futures in August [4][5]. Group 5: Synthetic Rubber - The operational logic for synthetic rubber mirrors that of Shanghai rubber, with no significant improvements in its fundamentals [5]. - Supply-demand balance for synthetic rubber is relatively stable, but prices are more influenced by changes in raw material butadiene prices [5]. - A tightening supply situation for butadiene is anticipated to persist, leading to a similar strong oscillation outlook for synthetic rubber futures [5].
利空情绪释放 橡胶板块或维持偏强震荡格局
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-12 00:47