Core Viewpoint - The recent domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened on August 12, 2025, but the retail price remains unchanged due to low crude oil price fluctuations and a failure to meet international adjustment thresholds [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The international oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI crude oil settling at $63.96 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.63 per barrel as of August 11, 2025 [1] - OPEC+ announced a completion of a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day by September, marking an early exit from a previous reduction plan, which negatively impacted the oil market [1] - The crude oil price change rate was recorded at 0.55%, indicating a potential domestic gasoline and diesel price increase of 20 yuan per ton, but it did not reach the international adjustment threshold [1] Group 2: Gasoline Market Analysis - The operating rate of local refineries remained stable at around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries increased to approximately 84%, leading to a slight increase in refined oil supply [3] - The domestic gasoline market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere due to normal travel activities and fluctuating crude oil prices, resulting in a downward trend in gasoline prices [3] - The increasing penetration of electric vehicles has led to lower-than-expected gasoline demand [3] Group 3: Diesel Market Analysis - Diesel market supply has slightly increased, but demand has weakened due to increased rainy weather and reduced agricultural oil consumption following the summer harvest [3] - Diesel inventory reached 1.1477 million tons in July, reflecting an 11.37% month-on-month increase, indicating a potential downward trend in diesel prices [3] - The overall diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to stable infrastructure and logistics demand [4] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The upcoming end of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the U.S. and unresolved supply risks are expected to keep international oil prices weak in the short term [4] - Domestic refinery operating rates have increased, leading to a relaxed supply of refined oil, while gasoline demand has not shown significant growth, suggesting a continued downward trend in gasoline prices [4] - Diesel demand is also expected to decline further, indicating a potential continuation of lower diesel prices [4]
生意社:本轮成品油零售价调整再遇搁浅
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-12 01:45