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两融十年“破茧”,杠杆水温未沸,小盘指增正当时
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-12 02:53

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a significant increase in risk appetite, with a notable rise in small-cap growth stocks, supported by a high level of margin financing that has returned to over 2 trillion yuan for the first time since 2015, although its market share has decreased [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on August 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing to strengthen after reaching a new high since 2022 [1]. - As of August 11, the margin financing balance has remained above 2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, marking a significant return to this level [1][3]. Group 2: Margin Financing Insights - Despite the high absolute value of margin financing, its proportion of the A-share market's circulating market value is only 2.30%, less than half of the 4.73% seen in April 2015, indicating a healthier leverage structure [3]. - This situation suggests that there may still be marginal incremental capital supporting the market, with leverage levels not yet reaching alarm thresholds [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market dynamics favor small-cap growth stocks, which are particularly sensitive to changes in liquidity and risk appetite, as evidenced by the performance of the CSI 1000 index, which has risen 16.55% year-to-date compared to the 8.82% increase of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - The 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680) has seen a year-to-date net value increase of 25.25%, significantly outperforming its benchmark, with a substantial inflow of 213 million shares over the year [8]. - The strategy of using index enhancement may be beneficial for investors looking to balance their portfolios while capturing both beta and alpha returns in the small-cap sector [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market's increasing heat and the gains across various sectors suggest that a refined approach to portfolio rebalancing may be prudent, particularly through low-cost dollar-cost averaging or phased entry strategies [11].