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美国国债市场深度调整的原因、潜在风险及我国应对措施
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-12 02:50

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury bond market following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, highlighting the challenges to the "safe asset" status of U.S. Treasuries and the potential risks involved in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Recent Market Volatility - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, 2025, the U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant turbulence, leading to a questioning of its status as a safe haven [2]. - Despite market speculation about foreign investors selling off U.S. Treasuries, the overall demand from overseas remains strong, particularly for bonds with maturities of five years or less, as evidenced by a high bid-to-cover ratio in recent auctions [2]. - The limited scale of hedge fund basis trading and the stability in the repo market indicate that financial institutions are not under significant pressure, contrasting with the situation in March 2020 [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - High tariffs are expected to increase inflation expectations, contributing to rising Treasury yields, with projections indicating a 1.8% increase in the U.S. price level due to tariff policies [6]. - The passage of the Trump tax cut plan is raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt, with estimates suggesting that federal debt could exceed $40 trillion by 2028, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 156% [7]. - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September 2025 may lead to a decline in short-term Treasury yields, while the need for large-scale bond issuance could create upward pressure on long-term yields [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The upcoming maturity of over $8.3 trillion in U.S. Treasuries from May to December 2025 may create short-term supply pressures, particularly affecting non-bank financial institutions [9]. - The shift in demand structure towards non-bank institutions is increasing market volatility and the risk of rising long-term rates, as these entities are more sensitive to changes in liquidity and risk perceptions [10]. - The potential for new regulations on stablecoins could create additional demand for U.S. Treasuries, with projections suggesting that the stablecoin market could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030 [11]. Group 4: Long-term Risks and Strategic Responses - The article highlights three long-term challenges facing U.S. Treasuries: the contradiction between declining U.S. power and excessive debt demand, the rising neutral interest rate, and the imbalance in fiscal revenue and expenditure [15][16]. - To mitigate risks, the article suggests that China should optimize its foreign exchange reserves and investment structure, gradually adjust its Treasury holdings, and enhance cross-border capital flow management [17][18].