Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy in China is expected to significantly boost demand in the dairy industry, leading to notable stock price increases for major dairy companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Dairy stocks have seen substantial gains, with Australia Asia Group (02425) rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Farming (01117) up 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Farming (01431) and China Shengmu (01432) also experiencing increases [1] - The overall positive sentiment in the dairy sector is reflected in the stock performance of leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly implemented child-rearing subsidy scheme will provide annual subsidies of CNY 3,600 per child for children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately CNY 100 billion [1] - This subsidy is expected to have a multiplier effect, enhancing demand for dairy products and benefiting the industry as a whole [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current meat and milk cycle is favorable for livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to improve profitability and cash flow for these firms [1] - Projections indicate that under a scenario where beef prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, companies like Yuran Farming, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of CNY 440 million, CNY 340 million, and CNY 80 million respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1]
乳业股涨幅居前 生育补贴有望提振乳制品需求 机构称肉奶周期共振利好牧企