时报论坛 | 从短期刺激向中长期结构性改革迈进

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with a 0.4% month-on-month increase, reversing the 0.1% decline in June, and exceeding market expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024 [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining at a two-year low, with a month-on-month decline of 0.2% [1] Consumption and Investment Trends - There are signs of recovery in consumption, but it is insufficient to support strong growth; food prices fell by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a compression in basic living expenses [1] - Fixed asset investment declined by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, which impacts overall economic resilience [2] - Industrial growth was reported at 6.8% in June, but the manufacturing sector's ability to absorb employment is limited compared to the service sector, which exacerbates consumption weakness [2] External Environment and Policy Measures - Increased external uncertainties, including extreme weather and unresolved US-China trade negotiations, are constraining export and investment expectations [2] - The government is implementing measures to improve market conditions, including addressing "involution" and combating harmful "price wars," although improvements in market order will take time [2] Structural Reforms and Economic Strategy - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for demand-side management to further stimulate consumption recovery, particularly in service sectors like elderly care and digital services [3] - There is a call for deepening supply-side structural reforms, with increased support for high-tech, new energy, and new infrastructure sectors [3] - The necessity for coordinated efforts between central and local policies was highlighted, advocating for a shift away from reliance on land finance and industrial expansion for GDP growth [3]