FII(SH:601138) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-12 03:35Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) reported strong mid-year results, meeting market expectations, but faces significant risks related to inventory, cash flow, and declining gross margins [1][3][23]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 360.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.11 billion yuan, up 38.61% [3][23]. - In Q2, revenue surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time, but net profit was 6.88 billion yuan, a 51.13% increase year-on-year, without reaching a new high [3][5]. Business Segments - Both main business segments benefited from the AI wave, with significant growth in AI server sales and communication equipment [5][7]. - AI server revenue grew over 50%, with cloud service provider server revenue increasing by over 150% [7][8]. Risk Indicators - Inventory surged to 1229.49 billion yuan, increasing by 30 billion yuan from Q1 and 376.83 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [9][10]. - Operating cash flow dropped significantly to 1.41 billion yuan in Q2, down approximately 70% year-on-year [12][14]. - Gross margin continued to decline, with Q2 gross margin at 6.50%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous quarter [15][16]. Financial Health - The company exhibited a "high inventory and high debt" phenomenon, with short-term borrowings rising to 611.80 billion yuan, accounting for 15.97% of total assets [19][20]. - The asset-liability ratio reached 60.33%, the highest in six years, indicating increased financial risk [21][23]. Market Valuation - The stock price has surged approximately 70% since July, raising concerns about whether the current valuation has outpaced actual performance [3][23]. - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is around 35 times, which is considered high for a company with a gross margin below 7% [23]. Investor Sentiment - Northbound funds have been reducing their holdings in Industrial Fulian for three consecutive quarters, indicating a cautious outlook among institutional investors [24][25].