证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 工业富联(601138) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 工业富联 2025 三季报点评：Q3 净利润 突破百亿，AI 业务大幅提升 工业富联 2025 半年报点评：净利润处 于预告上限，AI CapEx 增长核心受益 工业富联 25H1 业绩预告点评：Q2 归母 净利润同比增长约 50%，AI 业务持续释 放业绩 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 工业富联 2025 业绩预增点评：Q4 业绩继续 高增，AI 驱动进入加速兑现期 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 29 日 | [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. (Industrial Fulian) announced a significant increase in its 2025 annual performance, with both annual and fourth-quarter operating results expected to grow substantially. However, due to a downward adjustment in industry valuation, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) lowered its target price by 18% [1][8]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.6 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5 billion to 5.1 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a growth of 56% to 63%. After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit is 12.4 billion to 13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37 billion to 43 billion yuan, marking a growth of 43% to 50% [3][10]. - For the full year 2025, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9 billion to 12.5 billion yuan compared to 2024, reflecting a growth of 51% to 54%. After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit is 34 billion to 34.6 billion yuan, up 10.6 billion to 11.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a growth of 45% to 48% [4][11]. Business Segments - The cloud computing sector is particularly strong, with server revenue from cloud service providers expected to grow over 1.8 times year-on-year in 2025. In Q4, this business is projected to grow over 30% quarter-on-quarter and over 2.5 times year-on-year. AI servers are identified as a core growth driver, with revenue expected to increase over 3 times year-on-year in 2025, and over 50% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 [5][11]. - In the communication and mobile network equipment sector, the company’s high-speed switch business continues to show robust growth. Revenue from switches above 800G is expected to increase by 13 times year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 showing a growth of over 4.5 times year-on-year. This growth is attributed to strong demand from the AI industry [12]. Market Position and Future Outlook - CICC provided an objective evaluation of Industrial Fulian's performance, indicating that the earnings forecast aligns with previous expectations. The upcoming release of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin cabinet is expected to enhance the company's market position, with potential for increased shipment volumes and profit margins due to higher complexity and integration [6][12]. - CICC has cautiously adjusted the company's 2025 net profit forecast down by 2.7% to 35.5 billion yuan, while maintaining a 2026 net profit forecast of 75.8 billion yuan and introducing a 2027 forecast of 89.8 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.9 times for 2026 and 13.4 times for 2027 [7][13].

1月28日，富士康工业互联网股份有限公司（以下简称"工业富联"）发布业绩预增公告，2025年全年及 第四季度经营业绩均实现显著增长，表现超出市场预期。 公告显示，2025年第四季度，工业富联预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润126亿元至132亿元，较上 年同期增加45亿元至51亿元，同比上升56%至63%；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益 的净利润124亿元至130亿元，较上年同期增加37亿元至43亿元，同比上升43%至50%。 全年来看，工业富联预计2025年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润351亿元至357亿元，较上年同期增加 119亿元至125亿元，同比上升51%至54%；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 340亿元至346亿元，较上年同期增加106亿元至112亿元，同比上升45%至48%。据悉，2024年度工业富 联归属于母公司所有者的净利润为232亿元，归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为234亿 元，每股收益1.17元。 关于本次业绩预增的主要原因，公告指出得益于核心业务的强劲增长及产品结构的持续优化。在云计算 业务方面，2025年公司云服务商服务器营业收入 ...

预告日期：2026-01-29 产业趋势与价格周期驱动，结构性行情持续深化。 | 作者 | | 迷宫 | | --- | --- | --- | | 编辑 | | 小白 | 本研报基于截至2026年1月28日A股上市公司发布的业绩预告公告，筛选出值得关注的标的。 业绩增速亮眼标的 01 工业富联（601138） 业绩预告类型： 预增 预计净利润区间： 351亿元-357亿元 同比变化： 增长51.00%-54.00% 核心原因摘要： AI服务器营收增长超3倍， 800G交换机业务增长13倍 ，受益于人工智能和算力基础设施建设需求爆 发 亮点/风险点分析： 亮点：AI算力需求强劲，公司在服务器代工领域全球领先；风险点：客户集中度高，毛利率可能受 上游芯片价格波动影响 02 西藏珠峰（600338） 业绩预告类型： 预增 预告日期：2026-01-29 预计净利润区间： 44150万元-53960万元 同比变化： 增长92.28%-135.01% 半导体检测设备需求旺盛 ，国产替代加速，公司订单饱满 核心原因摘要： 有色金属价格上涨 ，公司矿产产量提升，同时受益于汇率变动产生的正向汇兑损益 亮点/风险点分析： 亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a rise of 51% to 54% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the AI server and switch markets [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 35.1 billion to 35.7 billion yuan for the full year of 2025, an increase of 11.9 billion to 12.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - For Q4 2025, the expected net profit is between 12.6 billion to 13.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56% to 63% [1] - The average daily profit for 2025 is projected to be nearly 100 million yuan [1] Group 2: Business Growth Drivers - The growth in net profit is primarily attributed to increased shipments of servers and switches, particularly for cloud service providers [1] - Revenue from cloud service provider servers is expected to grow over 180% year-on-year in 2025, with Q4 revenue showing a month-on-month increase of over 30% and a year-on-year increase of over 250% [1] - AI server revenue is projected to grow over 50% quarter-on-quarter and over 550% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Industrial Fulian holds a 73.8% market share in the 800G high-speed switch segment, with revenue from this segment expected to increase by 1300% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI, with expectations of steady growth in AI server and 800G switch shipments [2] - Industrial Fulian is a key foundry for Nvidia, which is expected to enhance profit margins with the introduction of the next-generation Rubin cabinet [2] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The strong financial performance supports substantial dividend payouts, with a cash dividend of 3.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 6.55 billion yuan, which is 54.07% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [2] - Over the past three years, the company has distributed and repurchased over 36.6 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices fell by 0.3% and 0.57% respectively, indicating a mixed market sentiment [3][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, gaining 6.75 points or 0.16% [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 42.82 points or 0.3% [4]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3304.51, decreasing by 19.05 points or 0.57% [4]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 49.46 points or 2.63%, closing at 1831.10 [4]. Sector Highlights - The liquor sector saw a significant surge, with stocks like Kweichow Moutai rising over 8%, and nearly 20 liquor stocks hitting the daily limit up [3][5]. - Oil and gas stocks continued their strong performance, with Intercontinental Oil and Gas achieving five consecutive limit-ups [7]. - The AI application sector was active, particularly in short drama and gaming themes, while sectors like semiconductors and commercial aerospace experienced notable pullbacks [3][5]. Capital Flow - There was a net inflow of capital into sectors such as media, food and beverage, and real estate, with Kweichow Moutai, Bluefocus, and Wuliangye receiving net inflows of 3.339 billion, 2.898 billion, and 1.703 billion respectively [9]. - Conversely, significant net outflows were observed in semiconductor and non-ferrous metal sectors, with companies like Industrial Fulian, Sungrow Power, and SMIC facing sell-offs of 6.531 billion, 1.787 billion, and 1.427 billion respectively [9]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the index faces pressure above and support below, emphasizing the need to monitor changes in trading volume [11]. - Dexun Securities suggested that the index is likely to maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term [12]. - Dongwu Securities indicated that if trading volume aligns effectively, there is potential for the market to reach new highs in the short term [12].

沪深两市成交额3.23万亿，较上一个交易日放量2646亿。 1月29日，A股市场全天震荡分化，上证50尾盘一度涨超2%。截至收盘，沪指涨0.16%，深成指跌0.3%，创业板指跌0.57%。科创综指跌 2.63%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | In Nurw | 4157.98c | 6.75 | 0.16% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | the control | 14300.08c | -42.82 | -0.30% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | yenny | 3304.51 c | -19.05 | -0.57% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | mann | 1831.10c | -49.46 | -2.63% | 盘面上，白酒股掀涨停潮，贵州茅台涨逾8%；黄金股延续强势，多股续创新高；AI应用题材活跃，短剧游戏方向领涨；地产、保险、银行涨 幅靠前。半导体、算力硬件、商业航天、人形机器人概念股回调明显。 具体来看，白酒板块午后 ...

据交易所数据显示，截至1月29日午后一小时，主力资金流出前20的股票分别为： 工业富联（-54.44亿元）、 阳光电源（-15.58亿元）、 中国铝业（-14.52亿 元）、铜陵有色（-12.04亿元）、 中芯国际（-11.09亿元）、 洛阳钼业（-10.80亿元）、 立讯精密（-10.68亿元）、 湖南白银（-10.62亿元）、 特变电工 （-10.23亿元）、 通富微电（-9.90亿元）、 澜起科技（-9.65亿元）、 沪电股份（-8.95亿元）、 兆易创新（-8.54亿元）、 厦门钨业（-8.21亿元）、 南山铝 业（-7.94亿元）、 歌尔股份（-7.74亿元）、 沃尔核材（-7.66亿元）、 三花智控（-7.61亿元）、 中国中铁（-7.41亿元）、 胜宏科技（-7.40亿元）。 | 沪电股份 | -3.79 | -8.95亿元 | 电子元件 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兆易创新 | -4.22 | -8.54亿元 | 未营体 | | 厦门钨业 | -7.1 1 | -8.21亿元 | 小金属 | | 南山铝业 | 2.29 | -7.94亿元 | 有色金属 | | ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月29日，CPO等算力硬件股震荡走低，奕东电子跌超9%，生益科技跌超6%，工业富 联、四会富仕跌超5%，华丰科技、长光华芯跟跌。 ...

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、宏观经济组： 分析师：刘笑瑜 证书编号：S1080525070001 电话：0755-23838239 另外 ，对于 5 月份主席任期届满之后的去留还没有任何打算。建议 下一届 美联储主席应远离民选政治，表示美联储独立性这种立法安排已经让美联 储很好地服务于美国；不相信美联储会丧失独立性。 市场方面，从盘后市场看，10 年期美债收益率变化不大，而由于美国财长贝森 特重申强势美元政策并否认干预日元汇率，美元指数涨 0.63%收于 96.35；美股 邮箱：liuxiaoyu@fcsc.com 事件： 1 月 29 日（星期四）3 点，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）2026 年第 1 次议息 会议。 点评： 美联储公布了 2026 年的第 1 份利率决议,决定将联邦基金利率区间维持在 3.5-3.75%区间不变，符合市场预期，这是美联储去年 9 月重启降息以来首次暂 停降息，投票结果显示，有投票权的 12 位 FOMC 委员中 10 票赞成，2 票反对， 反对者是美联储理事沃勒和 ...