顶住特朗普5次施压后，美联储终于要“投降”了

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - Following the meeting, there has been a significant shift towards dovish sentiment, with key figures like Waller and Daly suggesting multiple rate cuts in the near future [2][3][4] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 91.5% probability of a rate cut in the September meeting, reflecting a growing consensus among market participants [2][3] Group 2 - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added against an expectation of 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] - The downward revision of job numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000 further exacerbates the situation, leading to an average of only 35,000 new jobs over the past three months [3][4] - Trump's recent actions, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, have intensified scrutiny on economic data and contributed to a perception of economic instability [3][4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and maintaining price stability is under pressure due to the recent poor employment data [4][5] - The increasing difficulty for the Federal Reserve to maintain its independence is a significant factor influencing its potential policy shift [5][6] - Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve, including personal attacks on Chairman Powell, has created a politically charged environment that may affect future monetary policy decisions [6][8] Group 4 - The potential for rate cuts could benefit high-debt traditional industries like real estate and highly leveraged innovative companies, but the overall impact remains uncertain [9][10] - The U.S. Treasury's projected interest payments on national debt for 2024 are expected to reach $882 billion, which exceeds military spending, highlighting the fiscal challenges ahead [9] - The recent nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board may increase the likelihood of politically influenced decision-making within the Fed [8][10]