Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-12 07:01Group 1 - The coal stocks have shown significant gains, with Mongolian Coking Coal rising by 3.69% to HKD 8.42, China Coal Energy up by 2.85% to HKD 10.47, Yanzhou Coal Mining increasing by 2.85% to HKD 9.75, and China Shenhua Energy rising by 2.78% to HKD 37.6 [1] - According to a report from Founder Securities, the tightening of supply in the coal industry has become an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - As temperatures rise and electricity generation from thermal power plants increases, the average daily coal consumption at thermal power plants is rapidly increasing, indicating a potential improvement in the coal supply-demand balance [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan believes that the impact of warm winter weather on total demand has passed, and electricity consumption is rapidly recovering, with coal demand starting to grow by over 1% since May [2] - The recent statements from the National Energy Administration regarding the "anti-involution" in the coal industry, combined with the pressure on profitability at the price level of 650 CNY/ton, are expected to constrain production, leading to a stable but declining total supply [2] - The combination of reduced imports and the current supply-demand fundamentals suggests that the bottom of the coal market may have been reached [2]