沪锡震荡上行 基本面供需双弱【8月12日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic sentiments. The main contract rose by 0.84% to 270,200 yuan/ton, but the overall market remains subdued due to low demand and tight supply conditions [1][2]. - Tin ore supply has not yet recovered, maintaining a tight domestic supply situation. Although there are expectations for supply recovery as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, actual output is delayed until the fourth quarter due to various factors [1][2]. - The downstream consumption is entering a low season, leading to weak demand performance. Orders in the home appliance sector are insufficient, and there is a significant decline in photovoltaic orders compared to the previous month, contributing to the overall weak demand [1][2]. Group 2 - The commentary from Jinrui Futures highlights that the raw material supply at domestic smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is tight, with low operating rates. The demand side remains sluggish, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, and the overall terminal demand is weak [2]. - The current fundamental changes are limited, with a slight surplus in supply-demand balance observed in August. However, the magnitude is small, and uncertainties in the supply side, along with strong overseas demand, provide some support, suggesting a continuation of the oscillating market pattern in the short term [2].