Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the U.S. airline and tourism industry showed average performance in Q2, with expectations for Samsonite's sales to decline by 7%, similar to the Q1 decline [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - Expected EBITDA margin for Samsonite is 16.8%, attributed to weak sales leading to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in operating expenses [1] - EBITDA is projected to decline by 17%, but the decline is expected to narrow [1] - For the second half of the year, some U.S. and European airlines report improved booking demand for Q3, with travel trends in July and August showing recovery [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Due to a low base, the sales decline for Samsonite in the second half is expected to narrow to 2% [1] - Sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been revised down by 5% to 6%, while EBITDA forecasts have been reduced by 10% to 14% [1] - Revenue and EBITDA forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted down by 4% and 12%, respectively, with gradual recovery anticipated in 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustment - In response to the lowered profit forecasts, the target price for Samsonite has been reduced from HKD 28 to HKD 24, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]
大行评级｜大摩：下调新秀丽目标价至24港元 预期次季销售额将跌7%