美联储9月降息预期高涨，CPI能否凭一己之力扳倒？

Core Viewpoint - Investors are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but rising inflation poses a significant obstacle to this expectation [1][2][4] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a core inflation rate rise to 3%, the highest level since February [1] - There are concerns that trade policy adjustments may lead to increased commodity inflation, which could delay the Fed's decision to cut rates [1] - Recent reports from major financial institutions highlight stagflation as a significant concern, with high inflation coexisting with weak economic growth [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Bond investors are actively positioning for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with some preparing for a potential 50 basis point cut if inflation data supports it [2] - The market is currently pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first expected in September [4] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has weakened ahead of the CPI report, leading to an increase in bond yields [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs before making a rate cut, despite pressure from President Trump [4] - The Fed's dual mandate of achieving full employment and price stability is becoming increasingly conflicted due to rising inflation [3][5] - The labor market's signs of weakness are leading to increased expectations for a rate cut in September [5]