今晚，黄金危机四伏！

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 1.6%, reaching a low of $3341.25, the lowest in over a week, before closing at $3342.20. Currently, gold is slightly up around $3351 [1] - U.S. stock indices saw minor declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.3%, and S&P 500 down 0.25% [2] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. and China reached a consensus to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs for 90 days, effective August 12. This includes tariffs on goods from Hong Kong and Macau [3] - Former President Trump commented on the sale of advanced chips, indicating ongoing discussions in the tech sector [4] Monetary Policy Developments - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking the third cut this year and the lowest rate since April 2023. This is part of a broader trend as global central banks respond to inflation and economic growth challenges due to U.S. tariffs [5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that evidence of a weakening job market suggests that the timing for interest rate cuts is approaching, with a focus on potential cuts in September and December [6][7] - According to CME FedWatch, there is a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [8] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. July CPI data is anticipated to be a critical indicator for market expectations regarding interest rate cuts. Predictions suggest a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in CPI [10][12] - The market is bracing for potential surprises from the CPI data, which could significantly impact financial markets [12] Investor Sentiment - A record 91% of fund managers believe that U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest level since 2001, indicating a bearish sentiment among investors [13] - Hedge funds sold $1 billion in U.S. stocks last week, while institutional investors bought $4 billion, suggesting mixed market dynamics [14] International Relations - President Trump announced a "tentative" meeting with President Putin, indicating potential discussions on the Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical issues [16]