美元难逃下行命运，任何反弹都是“死猫跳”？

Group 1 - The core view is that the US dollar is on a long-term weakening trend due to closed speculative short positions and deteriorating fiscal prospects amid an economic slowdown [1][4] - The dollar index has faced another failed rebound, attempting to recover from the low in early July but facing resistance, indicating a potential continuation of this pattern [1][4] - Speculative short positions in dollar futures were extremely crowded, making a rebound a matter of time rather than certainty, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showing extreme short positions [1][4] Group 2 - Positions in the dollar against developed market currencies have returned to a net long status, while short positions against emerging market currencies remain and are expanding [3][1] - Macro hedge funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have also seemingly closed their dollar shorts, with their sensitivity to dollar performance returning to neutral levels after previously hitting a three-year low [4][1] - The US fiscal balance is under increasing pressure, with an annual deficit of approximately $2 trillion, which could double to double-digit percentages if the economy enters a recession [5][4] Group 3 - The risk of an economic recession in the US is rising, with tax revenue expected to decline, leading to greater pressure on government budgets [4][5] - Market movements are not linear, especially in the foreign exchange market, but the prevailing downward trend for the dollar suggests that any upward movements may become increasingly short-lived [7][1]