碳酸锂狂飙的4天：多空决战宜春，投资者半夜蹲守矿山

Core Viewpoint - The recent developments in the lithium mining sector, particularly the suspension of operations at Ningde Times' lithium mine in Yichun, are seen as a significant signal of supply contraction in the context of the "anti-involution" campaign initiated by the government [2][5][8]. Industry Summary - On August 7, a statement from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association highlighted the dangers of "involution" competition, which triggered a surge in market interest and speculation regarding lithium supply [2][3]. - Following the announcement of the suspension of operations at Ningde Times' Yichun lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license, lithium carbonate futures experienced a dramatic price increase, with a rise of 18.5% from August 7 to August 12, reaching a price of 82,520 yuan per ton [3][5]. - The Yichun mining operations are critical, with eight involved mining companies accounting for approximately 20% of China's monthly lithium production, and the suspension is viewed as a major indicator of potential supply issues [4][11]. - The market is currently engaged in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with investors closely monitoring the situation as they speculate on the future of lithium prices and supply dynamics [6][10]. - The deadline of September 30 for the submission of resource verification reports by the eight mining companies is seen as a pivotal point for the market, with potential implications for future lithium supply and pricing [8][11]. Company Summary - Ningde Times' lithium mine in Yichun has been a focal point of market speculation, with the company expressing optimism about the renewal of its mining license prior to the suspension [6][7]. - Other companies involved in lithium mining, such as Guoxuan High-Tech and Keli Yuan, have reported that their operations remain normal and their mining licenses are still valid [11]. - Analysts suggest that if Ningde Times' mine resumes operations after three months and other mines remain unaffected, the overall impact on lithium supply may be limited to a reduction of approximately 30,000 to 35,000 tons [11].