SMIC(981.HK)2Q25 RESULTS REVIEW：MACRO TREND MATTERS MORE THAN FUNDAMENTAL

Core Viewpoint - SMIC reported a 16% year-over-year revenue growth in 2Q25, slightly exceeding mid-point guidance, driven by subsidy-driven demand and domestic substitution [1][2] - However, the guidance for 3Q25 revenue and gross profit margin (GPM) was below consensus expectations, indicating a conservative outlook for the second half of 2025 due to potential smartphone demand softness and new capacity pressures [1][2] Financial Performance - 2Q25 revenue reached US$2,209 million, a 16% increase year-over-year but a 2% decrease quarter-over-quarter, beating mid-point guidance by 3% [2] - GPM for 2Q25 was 20.4%, exceeding the high-end guidance of 20%, despite a 2.1 percentage points decline quarter-over-quarter [2] - The average selling price (ASP) fell by 6% quarter-over-quarter to US$874 due to wafer price discounts related to quality issues [2] - Net income for 2Q25 was US$133 million, which was below both BOCIe and consensus estimates by 16% and 20% respectively [2] 3Q25 Guidance - Management guided for 3Q25 revenue growth of 5-7% quarter-over-quarter, which is approximately 1 percentage point below the consensus of 7% [2] - GPM for 3Q25 is expected to be between 18-20%, approximately 2 percentage points below the consensus of 21% [2] - The soft guidance reflects management's cautious view on ASP increases and the impact of increased online capacity in the second half of 2025 [2] Long-term Growth Drivers - Demand for domestic analog and PMIC fabless is expected to drive long-term growth, with notable demand from connectivity, memory ancillary ICs, recovering EV and industrial demand, and higher penetration of fast charge ICs [3] - SMIC anticipates benefiting from the global market share gains of China analog and PMIC fabless [3] Market Catalysts - The trend towards global localization to mitigate supply chain and tariff risks presents opportunities for SMIC [4] - The launch of GPT-5 is expected to reignite industry enthusiasm for GenAI capital expenditures, benefiting SMIC due to its unique position in domestic GPU production [4] Valuation - The revenue and EPS estimates remain largely unchanged, with a new target price of HK$56.7 based on a price-to-book ratio of 2.8x, adjusted from 2.4x [5]