今晚8点半，特朗普“换人”后首份CPI来了！

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the July CPI inflation report, with expectations of a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in CPI [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding the credibility of BLS data following the dismissal of its director by Trump, which may undermine market confidence in U.S. government statistics [5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have warned that the upcoming data may be "hotter" than expected, with Goldman predicting a 0.27% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.33% increase in core CPI [6] - Specific contributions to core CPI are expected from new and used car prices, as well as from household and entertainment goods affected by tariffs [6] - The overall tariff rate on U.S. goods is approximately 15%, but the effective tariff rate on recent imports is only between 9% and 10%, indicating that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be felt by consumers [6] Group 3 - Predictions for December CPI suggest a potential rise to 3.0%-3.5% year-over-year, with core CPI possibly reaching 3.5%-4.0% [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent weak employment data [8] - Market analysts suggest that higher tariffs and their economic impacts remain a significant concern, potentially leading to market adjustments, especially in the third quarter [9]