美国CPI年率低于预期，市场加大9月降息押注

Group 1 - The core CPI for July in the US rose to 3.1%, marking a five-month high and exceeding market expectations of 3.0% [1] - The overall CPI year-on-year recorded at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month CPI was 0.2%, in line with expectations but lower than the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Following the data release, spot gold surged to a high of $3354 per ounce, while the US dollar index fell sharply, and non-US currencies appreciated significantly [1] Group 2 - Analyst Anstey noted that the monthly core CPI reading did not fall below the expected median for the first time in six months, raising concerns about potential inflation increases in the coming months [3] - Anstey highlighted that video and audio products, affected by tariffs, saw a monthly increase of 0.8%, the smallest since May, with an annual increase of 0.4%, the largest since 2021 [3] - Analyst Jersey expressed that the bond market appears concerned about rising CPI, but the overall monthly data suggests that PCE data received before the September meeting may be close enough to the 2% target to allow the Fed to ease monetary policy [3]