Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-12 13:16Group 1: Macro Overview - The "anti-involution" policy is beginning to influence various industries in China, affecting supply and demand dynamics despite ongoing deflationary pressures [1][2] - July economic data shows that CPI remained flat year-on-year at 0%, while PPI maintained a deflation level of -3.6%, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - The policy has led to slight price recoveries in specific commodities like coal and cement, but the sustainability of these effects is uncertain without stronger demand-side measures [2] Group 2: Lithium Industry - The lithium sector is experiencing a supply contraction coinciding with a seasonal demand increase, with predictions that lithium prices may exceed 80,000 yuan per ton [3][4] - A significant supply reduction is expected due to the suspension of operations at a major lithium mine, which could decrease global lithium supply by 4-6% annually [3] - Demand for lithium is projected to rise significantly, particularly in the battery sector, with expectations of a monthly increase of 5,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from August to November [3] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is seeing a dual impact from supply-side production cuts and demand support from new infrastructure projects [5][6] - Major cement producers are voluntarily reducing production, with some regions coordinating extended shutdowns to improve supply-demand balance [5] - New infrastructure projects, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yajiang Hydropower Station, are expected to bolster cement demand and alleviate downward pressure on the industry [5] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have been upgraded to "buy" ratings due to improved production capabilities and favorable market conditions [4] - The profitability outlook for cement companies, such as Anhui Conch Cement, has been raised, reflecting market expectations of policy effectiveness and improved cash flow [6][7] - The overall sentiment indicates that structural opportunities may arise in sectors with clear supply-demand mismatches and strong policy support [7]