美联储不信数据操纵阴谋论，降息已经箭在弦上？

Core Viewpoint - The recent employment report, which indicated signs of labor market weakness, has become a significant reason for the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut, aligning with President Trump's desire for lower interest rates to reduce debt costs [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The July employment report has been interpreted as evidence of economic slowdown, with concerns raised about the labor market's vitality [2]. - Recent comments from policymakers indicate a shift in their assessment of economic risks due to the slowdown in employment growth observed in May, June, and July [3]. - The probability of a rate cut during the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is perceived to be over 85%, contingent on forthcoming economic data [3]. Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau (BLS) and Data Integrity - The appointment of E.J. Antoni as the new BLS director has raised concerns regarding the credibility of data that influences interest rates and stock prices [4]. - Despite recent criticisms of the BLS, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach and has mechanisms to cross-verify data from various sources [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve utilizes alternative data sources, including private data and surveys, to assess economic conditions, ensuring a comprehensive understanding beyond BLS data [6][7]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Data Collection and Analysis - The Federal Reserve has its own channels for data collection, including surveys of corporate executives and informal interviews, which contribute to its economic assessments [7]. - The Minneapolis Fed President emphasized that any attempts to manipulate BLS data would ultimately be ineffective, as real economic conditions will be felt by the public [7].