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美银 8 月全球基金经理调查:做多“漂亮 7 股”再次成为最拥挤的交易
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-12 13:46

Core Insights - The survey indicates that fund managers are the most optimistic since February 2025, with a reduced probability of a hard landing and a historical low cash allocation of 3.9% in assets under management (AUM) [1][15]. Macro and Policy - 68% of respondents predict a soft landing for the economy, while only 5% are preparing for a hard landing. The net global growth expectation remains weak at -41% [2]. - Optimism regarding interest rate cuts has reached its highest level since December 2024, with 54% believing the next Federal Reserve chair will implement quantitative easing (QE) or yield curve control (YCC) [2]. Risks, Crowded Trades, and AI - Tail risks from trade wars/recession have decreased to 29%, while inflation/Fed not cutting rates risks are at 27%. The risk of an AI bubble has risen to 14% [3]. - "Longing the Magnificent Seven stocks" is the most crowded trade at 45%, but 52% of respondents do not believe in an AI bubble, and 55% state that AI is enhancing productivity [3]. Asset Allocation - Global equity overweight has reached a net 14%, the highest since February 2025, with funds shifting from the Eurozone to emerging markets (overweight 37%) and Japan (underweight 2%) [4]. - 91% of respondents believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, marking a historical high, and there is a shift in funds from healthcare to utilities, energy, and financial sectors [4]. Cryptocurrency and Gold - Only 9% of investors hold cryptocurrencies, with an average allocation of 3.2%. For those excluding 75% who do not hold crypto, the exposure is 0.3% [5]. - 48% of investors hold gold, with an average allocation of 4.1%. Excluding 41% who do not hold gold, the overall exposure is 2.2% [5]. Contrarian Trading Strategies - Based on current fund manager positions, the best contrarian long positions are U.S. cash, REITs, and healthcare, while the best contrarian short positions are stocks, emerging markets, banks, and utilities [6].