挑战史上最大IPO 美国“两房”私有化不易

Core Insights - The U.S. government is planning to sell shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, potentially raising up to $30 billion, which could be one of the largest IPOs in history [1][3] - The privatization of these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) raises concerns about the impact on the U.S. housing finance market, as they currently rely on government support [1][4] Group 1: IPO Details - The government plans to sell 5% to 15% of the shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with a fundraising target of approximately $30 billion [3] - The combined valuation of the two companies could reach $500 billion or more, depending on the final structure of the IPO [3] - The largest IPO to date was Saudi Aramco in 2019, which raised $29.4 billion, while Alibaba's 2014 IPO raised $25 billion [3] Group 2: Historical Context - Fannie Mae was established in 1938 and privatized in 1968, while Freddie Mac was created in 1970 to compete with Fannie Mae [3] - Both companies were taken over by the government during the 2008 financial crisis after incurring losses of $70 billion [4] - Since then, they have been under government conservatorship, with profits going to the U.S. Treasury [4] Group 3: Market Implications - The privatization could lead to significant economic benefits for the government, banks, and existing shareholders, with substantial underwriting fees for selected banks [7] - However, the loss of government backing could increase financing costs for the companies, potentially raising mortgage rates by 0.6 to 0.9 percentage points [8] - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of the IPO within the proposed timeline, citing potential market pressures and the need for a clear exit strategy [6][7] Group 4: Expert Opinions - Experts emphasize the critical role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the U.S. housing market, arguing that privatization could disrupt their contributions [8] - There are concerns that without government support, the companies may struggle to maintain stability in the housing finance market [8]