美国7月CPI数据出炉，美联储9月降息预期升温

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation data from the U.S. Labor Department shows stability and aligns with market expectations, increasing bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, with the previous value also at 2.7% [1] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching expectations, while the previous value was 0.3% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 3.0%, and up from the previous value of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with expectations, while the previous value was 0.2% [1] Market Reaction Summary - Following the inflation data release, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds across all maturities declined, and the U.S. dollar index fell, with the dollar weakening against the euro and the British pound [1] Short-term Market Outlook - Dongwu Securities analysis suggests that high U.S. stock markets will face multiple "stress tests," likely resulting in a volatile trading environment [1] - The market is sensitive to macroeconomic data amid a backdrop of global demand slowdown and interest rate cut expectations, where any data slowdown could amplify stock market fluctuations [1] - Historical data indicates that August and September have been the worst-performing months for the S&P 500 index over the past thirty years [1] - The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference in August is noted, where past speeches by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have often led to adjustments in the S&P 500 index [1]