美官员：特朗普认为中国会最早投降，当中方反击时，美国已经输了

Group 1: U.S. Trade Policy and Misjudgments - The Trump administration's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese goods was based on the belief that China would quickly capitulate due to its reliance on the U.S. market, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 19% of China's total exports [3][8] - The initial tariff rate was raised from 34% to 84%, affecting over $300 billion in goods, which was framed as a key step to make America great again [3][5] - The U.S. underestimated China's economic resilience and the interconnectedness of global supply chains, leading to significant miscalculations in the trade war [7][10] Group 2: China's Economic Response - China's countermeasures included imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods, which highlighted the flaws in the U.S. strategy and resulted in increased costs for American consumers [5][18] - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience, with a 9.7% year-on-year growth in high-tech manufacturing and a 45.4% increase in new energy vehicle production in Q1 2025 [8][18] - China's strategic responses targeted key U.S. industries, such as agriculture and automotive, effectively pressuring U.S. companies to advocate for negotiations [15][19] Group 3: Global Economic Impact - The trade war led to job losses in the U.S., with approximately 180,000 jobs lost in the first half of 2025, predominantly in manufacturing [21] - The U.S. trade deficit actually widened to $120 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating that tariffs did not achieve their intended effect [24] - Internationally, the U.S. faced backlash, with allies like the EU imposing retaliatory tariffs, and countries like India accelerating trade talks with China [22][24] Group 4: Long-term Strategic Shifts - China's focus on reducing dependency on U.S. markets and enhancing its domestic consumption was evident, with retail sales surpassing 12 trillion yuan in Q1 2025 [18] - The establishment of trade agreements with ASEAN and advancements in technology, such as the production of 7nm chips by Huawei, showcased China's strategic pivot [17][18] - The trade war underscored a shift in global economic dynamics, where the U.S. could no longer dictate terms without considering the resilience and adaptability of other nations [26]