宽松周期远未结束？澳洲联储年内第三次降息，大幅下调经济预期

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has continued its dovish stance by cutting the cash rate to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut of the year amid a bleak economic growth outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The RBA has significantly downgraded its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, reflecting a more severe economic landscape [5]. - The long-term productivity growth assumption has been reduced from 1.0% to 0.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in the economy's growth capacity from 2.25% to 2.0% [5]. - The report attributes the lowered growth expectations to weaker-than-expected public demand growth at the beginning of 2025 [5]. Inflation and Labor Market - Core inflation has eased to 2.7%, nearing the RBA's target range of 2%-3%, providing room for monetary policy easing [7]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level in four years, indicating initial signs of market cooling [7]. - Despite the rising unemployment, the RBA forecasts that the rate will remain stable at 4.3% until the end of 2027, suggesting a complex labor market scenario [7]. Monetary Policy Direction - The RBA's current monetary policy is perceived as still restrictive, with expectations of further easing in the future [8]. - Market predictions suggest a total rate cut of 80 basis points over the next year, bringing the cash rate down to a range of 2.85% to 3.1% [8]. - Some analysts predict a more aggressive approach, forecasting a potential 100 basis points cut within the next 12 months [8].