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中金:核心通胀反弹或加剧联储内部分歧
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-12 23:57

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that the U.S. core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [1] - Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [1] - Inflation in July showed characteristics of moderate goods prices and a rebound in services, with tariff costs still being transmitted to retail, although some prices have decreased [1] Inflation Trends - Some previously declining service prices have turned to increases, contributing to the stickiness of inflation [1] - The assessment maintains that U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase [1] Federal Reserve Implications - For the Federal Reserve, the core CPI is not converging towards the 2% target but instead has returned to above 3%, moving further away from the target [1] - This situation may increase internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, making it difficult to reach a consensus on policy decisions [1] - The variability in monetary policy paths is expected to significantly increase, leading to heightened market volatility [1]