黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.13）

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and U.S.-China tariff policies, which collectively support gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data for July shows a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with market expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since January, indicating easing inflation pressures that support the Fed's potential rate cuts and bolster gold prices [2]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with the likelihood rising from 86% to 94%. Lower interest rates diminish the dollar's appeal and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus favoring gold price increases [2]. - The U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce for 90 days until November 10, alleviating trade tensions and reducing potential inflationary pressures, which enhances gold's attractiveness as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop on Monday, erasing all gains from the previous week, with bearish signals emerging. Tuesday's trading entered a corrective phase, resembling patterns from mid-June. The short-term outlook remains weak, with a focus on whether the downward trend will continue [3]. - In the short-term structure, gold is currently in a C-3-3 downward phase. A critical support level is identified at 3331; if this level holds, a potential rebound may occur, with resistance levels at 3360/3361, 3370, and 3379/3380. Conversely, if the price breaks below 3331, further support levels to watch are 3322/3321 and 3310 [5].