菜粕期货近、远月合约走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in the futures market for rapeseed meal contracts is attributed to a combination of high inventory levels and changing supply-demand dynamics, influenced by trade policies and market expectations regarding Canadian canola production [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The near-month rapeseed meal futures have seen a significant decline due to high inventory levels and weak demand, despite previous strong price increases [2]. - As of August 1, port rapeseed meal inventory reached 610,000 tons, significantly higher than the 291,300 tons recorded in the same period last year [2]. - The recent increase in registered warehouse receipts for rapeseed meal is at the highest level for this time of year in a decade, contributing to downward pressure on near-month contract prices [2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - The strength in far-month rapeseed meal contracts is supported by low import expectations for canola, the impact of a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and anticipated reductions in Canadian canola production for the 2025/2026 season [3]. - The recent preliminary ruling by the Ministry of Commerce on anti-dumping investigations against Canadian rapeseed will impose a 75.8% deposit rate on imports, further constraining supply and potentially increasing prices [3]. - The market is currently at a crossroads between high inventory levels and weak demand versus strong expectations of reduced production, necessitating close monitoring of USDA reports and market conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Considerations - The potential improvement in trade relations between China and Canada, along with the new season's canola supply, may lead to a weakening of rapeseed meal prices despite current high inventory levels [4]. - The ongoing assessment of canola yield and production in Canada is expected to influence the pricing of rapeseed meal contracts in the coming months [4]. - A decrease in demand from aquaculture may further impact rapeseed meal demand, although overall supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain stable [5].