分析人士：黄金市场波动料加大

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various factors, including U.S. monetary policy, inflation concerns, and geopolitical events, particularly the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting regarding Ukraine [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic and international gold prices have both declined recently, following a spike due to concerns over high tariffs on gold imports [1]. - The COMEX gold price reached a high of $3534.1 per ounce before retreating after the U.S. government clarified that gold bars would not be subject to tariffs [1]. - The price difference between COMEX and London gold surged over $100 per ounce due to tariff concerns but later fell back to $50 per ounce [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, leading to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - Inflationary pressures are rising, particularly after the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates [2]. - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with a shift towards a more dovish stance anticipated in upcoming meetings [2][4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting on August 15 may influence market sentiment, particularly regarding the potential for a ceasefire in Ukraine [3]. - Market participants are already pricing in expectations of a ceasefire, which has contributed to the recent decline in gold prices [3]. - The Jackson Hole global central bank summit later this month could also impact monetary policy and gold prices, with a focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to experience short-term weakness but maintain a bullish outlook in the medium to long term, especially if the Fed confirms rate cuts [4][5]. - The anticipated normalization of U.S. monetary policy is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices, with a key support level identified at $3360 per ounce for COMEX gold [4].