广发期货：央行购金和投资需求支撑金价

Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported a total global gold demand of 1079 tons in Q2 2025, a decrease of 17.4% from Q1, but an increase of 12.8% year-on-year [1] - Gold supply in Q2 was 1248.8 tons, reflecting a 6.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices stimulating mining supply expansion [1] Investment Demand - Global gold ETF demand remained strong for two consecutive quarters, with Q2 demand decreasing from 248.6 tons to 166.5 tons, a decline of 33%, yet still at a high level compared to previous years [2] - North America saw gold ETF inflows of 72.9 tons, totaling 1857 tons, while Asia followed with 69.9 tons, reaching 320.7 tons, with Europe and other regions also maintaining a net inflow trend [2] - Investment in gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for three consecutive quarters, with Q2 demand decreasing to 306.8 tons, a 5.5% decline from Q1, but still marking the strongest performance since 2013 for the first half of the year [2] Central Bank Demand - Central bank purchases significantly supported global gold demand, with official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, a 33% decrease from Q1 [2] - The People's Bank of China has consistently purchased gold for nine months, raising reserves to 2300.4 tons, indicating a normalization of central bank gold buying [2] Jewelry and Industrial Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption was subdued in H1 2025, with Q2 central bank demand dropping to 356.7 tons, a 16.1% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 13.1% decrease year-on-year [3] - High prices and liquidation costs have dampened consumer purchasing willingness, contributing to a general downturn in the jewelry sector [3] - Industrial demand for gold fell to 78.6 tons in Q2, the lowest level of 2023, although AI-related applications present significant growth potential for gold demand [3] Supply Dynamics - Q2 gold mine supply increased by 9.1% to 908.6 tons, driven by high average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) profit margins encouraging mining expansion in countries like Ghana, Canada, and Chile [3] - Gold recycling volume decreased by 1.3 tons to 347.2 tons in Q2, with high prices limiting recycling incentives [3] Market Outlook - The dollar's potential structural weakness may attract more institutional attention, with a strong consensus on its mid-term decline [4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September could spark greater investor interest in gold [4] - Despite the strong inflow of global gold ETFs, demand may soften in H2 2025 if gold prices stabilize after significant increases [4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains bullish amid de-dollarization trends, although price fluctuations may suppress investment and consumption demand [4]