通胀降温巩固9月降息预期，金价短期波动或加剧丨黄金早参

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, traders raised their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the current probability estimated at 95% [1] - Analysts noted that the moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the expectation for a rate cut in September [1] - There are indications of caution among investors due to data quality issues and upward pressure on core CPI, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may increase, the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]