港股早参丨美国7月CPI温和上涨，低于预期！美联储9月降息概率大增

Market Overview - On August 12, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.25% to 24,969.68 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.38% to 5,439.16 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.32% to 8,916.85 points [1] - The energy and financial sectors led the gains, while pharmaceutical stocks generally retreated and AI concept stocks remained sluggish [1] - Notable individual stock movements included Kuaishou down over 9%, Bilibili down nearly 4%, Alibaba down over 1.5%, SMIC up over 5%, and Xiaomi up nearly 2% [1] Southbound Capital - On August 12, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 9.45 billion HKD, bringing the total net inflow for the year to 910.288 billion HKD, significantly exceeding last year's total net purchase amount [2] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed higher overnight, with the Dow Jones up 1.1%, S&P 500 up 1.13%, and Nasdaq up 1.39%, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching historical highs [2] - Notable gains included UnitedHealth Group and Goldman Sachs, both rising over 3%, while major Chinese concept stocks also saw increases, with Tencent Music up nearly 12% and Niu Technologies up over 11% [2] Key Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that July's CPI remained flat year-on-year at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since February [3] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90% [3] Company Performance - Tencent Music reported Q2 2025 earnings with total revenue increasing by 17.9% year-on-year to 8.44 billion CNY, and adjusted net profit rising by 33% to 2.64 billion CNY, with online music paying users increasing by 6.3% to 124.4 million [3] Short Selling Data - On August 12, a total of 634 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 23.369 billion HKD. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, and Xiaomi were the top three stocks by short selling amount, with 1.546 billion HKD, 1.265 billion HKD, and 1.188 billion HKD respectively [4] Institutional Insights - Zhongtai Securities noted that while July's CPI continued its previous upward trend, the price growth of goods remained stable, and service prices showed signs of increase, indicating potential inflationary pressures [5] - The firm anticipates that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, with two cuts expected within the year due to the current economic conditions [5] ETF Insights - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets and leading technology firms that are also relatively scarce in A-shares [7]