张尧浠：9月超幅降息预期升温、金价多头蓄力等待蠢蠢欲动

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a significant interest rate cut in September has increased, leading to bullish sentiment in gold prices as market participants await potential upward movements [1][7]. Market Performance - On August 12, international gold prices fluctuated, opening at $3342.73 per ounce, reaching a low of $3331.22 and a high of $3358.67, ultimately closing at $3347.97, with a daily range of $27.45 and a gain of $5.24, or 0.16% [3][5]. - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with gold prices expected to remain volatile but with a potential upward trend if certain resistance levels are breached [6][11]. Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data for July showed only a moderate increase, which supports the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month [3][7]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and prompting expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently facing resistance around $3360 to $3370, with support levels identified at $3337 and $3325 [12]. - The daily chart indicates a potential bullish reversal if gold can close above the 5-day moving average, while a failure to do so may lead to further declines towards the 100-day moving average [11][9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will enter a more accommodative monetary policy cycle starting in September, which could lead to significant increases in gold prices, potentially reaching $4200 within the next year [7][9].