Group 1 - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices by over 18% on the announcement day [1] - Copper ore and cathode copper have been exempted from tariffs, which was unexpected by the market, weakening previous expectations of increased domestic copper production and decreased demand for non-American copper [1] - The exemption is expected to be bullish for copper prices from a global supply-demand perspective, but a decrease in U.S. copper imports is anticipated in the second half of the year, potentially increasing non-American copper supply and negatively impacting LME and SHFE copper prices [1] Group 2 - Current global market risk appetite is high, with positive performance in both domestic and international equity markets, which is bullish for copper prices [2] - Recent weak U.S. non-farm data and lower-than-expected non-manufacturing PMI have raised expectations of a weakening U.S. economy, leading to increased predictions of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Domestic macroeconomic conditions have improved, with a general upward trend in pricing for domestic commodities, although the market has shown signs of cooling towards the end of July [2] Group 3 - The current copper market is characterized by a strong domestic performance and weak external conditions, with domestic electrolytic copper inventory depletion slowing and overseas copper inventory accumulating at high levels [2] - The exclusion of refined copper and copper ore from U.S. tariffs has led to a convergence of LME and COMEX copper price differentials to normal levels, reducing the tariff's impact on copper prices [3] - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a 90-day extension of tariff policies, contributing to improved trade relations and potentially supporting copper price trends [3]
宏观面利多 铜价延续内强外弱格局
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-08-13 01:33